Tombstone Sky
Dark-Site Observatory
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Tombstone Sky
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Global Warming and Climate Change Warming Basics Methane Facts Ice-Free Arctic? The Future? News Links Based on the studies referenced below, the Once this "tipping point" has been reached, we will no longer be able to either contain or reverse the effects of climate change. When we reach the point of no return, there won't be any fireworks or any other remarkable event. It only means we will have lost the ability to do anything to either reverse climate change or avoid its consequences.
These Point of No Return (PNR) clocks are based on two studies. The first one studied how much CO2 we could add to the atmosphere, total, in the first half of this century. That number was 1.1 trillion tons, although the study mentioned this number may be high by 25%. Both estimates are used for the PNR clocks. The study also estimated that we had already put 1/3 of this total into the atmosphere. The second study is from the US DOE and is a projection of CO2 output to the atmosphere through 2030. The clocks have been updated with Jun 2009 DOE estimates. Although the numbers look "better" compared to the 2008 estimates, the "improvement" only moved the clocks back approximately 6 months. Note that these studies and these clocks are based on CO2 projections only, and do not include other factors such as other greenhouse gasses (most especially methane), nor the diminishing capability of the planet to process CO2. These PNR clocks are reasonable, in my opinion, based on data from other studies. If you don't agree with the clocks, feel free to run the studies yourself and come up with your own numbers.
Update history May 14, 2009 - web page created.
As an example, on Jan 1, 2015, the projections indicate that the Point of No Return will have moved to between Jan 15, 2019 and Mar 23, 2026, and the near-clock will be decrementing by 45.14 hrs/day.
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